Can Biden Hold On?
2Digest
The episode begins with a discussion about the use of exit polls in the UK and France, where they are treated differently than in the US. Jeffrey Scally argues that the UK's approach is a good use of polling because it compares exit poll results to past election data, providing a more nuanced understanding of voting shifts. Nathaniel Reykjit, however, believes that exit polls are a bad use of polling because they can create misleading narratives and confuse viewers. The conversation then shifts to the growing pressure on Biden to step down from the 2024 presidential race. The episode explores the reasons behind this pressure, including Biden's declining approval ratings, the concerns about his age, and the emergence of dissent within the Democratic Party. The episode also discusses the potential for a scandal surrounding Biden's fitness for the job, particularly in light of his recent debate performance. The hosts debate whether Biden's avoidance of public appearances constitutes a scandal, ultimately concluding that it is more of a political problem than a legal or moral one. The episode concludes with a discussion about Trump's potential VP pick and the upcoming NATO conference, which will provide another opportunity to assess Biden's fitness for the job.
Outlines
Good or Bad Use of Polling?
This Chapter discusses the use of exit polls in the UK and France, where they are treated differently than in the US. Jeffrey Scally argues that the UK's approach is a good use of polling because it compares exit poll results to past election data, providing a more nuanced understanding of voting shifts. Nathaniel Reykjit, however, believes that exit polls are a bad use of polling because they can create misleading narratives and confuse viewers.
Biden's Predicament
This Chapter explores the growing pressure on Biden to step down from the 2024 presidential race. The episode explores the reasons behind this pressure, including Biden's declining approval ratings, the concerns about his age, and the emergence of dissent within the Democratic Party.
The Biden Scandal?
This Chapter discusses the potential for a scandal surrounding Biden's fitness for the job, particularly in light of his recent debate performance. The hosts debate whether Biden's avoidance of public appearances constitutes a scandal, ultimately concluding that it is more of a political problem than a legal or moral one.
Keywords
Exit Polls
Exit polls are surveys conducted outside polling places on election day to gauge voter sentiment and predict election outcomes. They are often used to provide early insights into election results, but their accuracy can vary depending on factors such as sample size, methodology, and voter turnout.
Joe Biden
Joe Biden is the 46th and current president of the United States. He is a member of the Democratic Party and has served in the United States Senate from Delaware from 1973 to 2009. Biden was elected vice president under Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. He was elected president in 2020, defeating incumbent Donald Trump.
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. He was born and raised in the New York City borough of Queens and received an economics degree from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Trump took charge of his family's real-estate business in 1971, renamed it The Trump Organization, and expanded its operations from Queens and Brooklyn into Manhattan. The company built or renovated skyscrapers, hotels, casinos, and golf courses. Trump later started various side ventures, mostly by licensing his name. Trump and his businesses have been involved in more than 4,000 state and federal legal actions, including six bankruptcies. Trump entered the 2016 presidential race as a Republican and defeated 16 other candidates in the primaries. His political positions have been described as populist, protectionist, isolationist, and nationalist. He won the general election against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, but lost the popular vote. Trump's presidency was marked by controversy, including his policies on immigration, trade, and foreign policy. He was impeached by the House of Representatives in 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, but was acquitted by the Senate. Trump was impeached again in 2021 for inciting the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, but was again acquitted by the Senate. Trump has announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election.
2024 Presidential Election
The 2024 United States presidential election is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, is eligible to run for a second term. The Republican Party's nominee is expected to be Donald Trump, who has already announced his candidacy. The election will be closely watched, as it will determine the direction of the United States for the next four years.
NATO
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance of North American and European countries. It was founded in 1949 in response to the perceived threat from the Soviet Union. NATO's primary purpose is to protect its members from attack. The alliance has a collective defense clause, which means that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all members. NATO has been involved in a number of military operations, including the Kosovo War, the Afghanistan War, and the Libyan Civil War. The alliance is currently facing a number of challenges, including the rise of Russia, the spread of terrorism, and the increasing assertiveness of China.
Democratic Party
The Democratic Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States. It is generally considered to be center-left on the political spectrum. The party's platform is based on social justice, economic equality, and environmental protection. The Democratic Party has a long history in the United States, dating back to the early 19th century. The party has been in power for much of the 20th and 21st centuries, and has produced some of the most iconic figures in American history, including Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama. The Democratic Party is currently the majority party in the House of Representatives, but the Senate is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans.
Republican Party
The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States. It is generally considered to be center-right on the political spectrum. The party's platform is based on limited government, individual liberty, and free markets. The Republican Party was founded in 1854 in opposition to the Kansas-Nebraska Act, which allowed for the expansion of slavery into new territories. The party has been in power for much of the 20th and 21st centuries, and has produced some of the most iconic figures in American history, including Abraham Lincoln, Ronald Reagan, and Donald Trump. The Republican Party is currently the majority party in the Senate, but the House of Representatives is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans.
Q&A
What are the key differences between how exit polls are used in the UK and France compared to the US?
In the UK and France, exit poll results are shown on television immediately after voting ends, with parliamentary seats apportioned according to the poll results. This is considered a blockbuster moment of the evening, but in the US, exit polls are not shared in a similar fashion and have a history of being less accurate.
What are the main reasons behind the growing pressure on Biden to step down from the 2024 presidential race?
The pressure stems from Biden's declining approval ratings, concerns about his age, and the emergence of dissent within the Democratic Party. Some lawmakers, donors, and voters believe that Biden is too old and not fit to serve another term.
Is there a scandal surrounding Biden's fitness for the job, and if so, what are the arguments for and against it?
The hosts debate whether Biden's avoidance of public appearances constitutes a scandal. While some argue that it is a sign of a potential medical condition or that the White House is hiding information, others believe it is simply a strategic move to minimize the amount of time he spends on camera given his perceived weaknesses.
How does the current situation with Biden compare to the access Hollywood episode in the 2016 election, and what are the key differences?
While there was significant dissent among Republicans in 2016 calling for Trump to step aside, the level of dissent against Biden is currently lower. However, the timing of the events, the nature of the controversies, and the personalities of the candidates make it difficult to draw a direct comparison.
What are the arguments for and against Biden's claim that he is staying in the race because the voters want him?
Biden argues that he has a mandate from the voters, citing his strong primary victory. However, polls suggest that a significant portion of the Democratic Party would prefer a different nominee, and the share of those who believe Biden should not run for a second term has grown since the debate.
Show Notes
As the Senate returns to Washington for the first time since President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the president appears to be digging in his heels. In a letter to Democratic lawmakers sent Monday morning, Biden was adamant that he is staying in the presidential race. But it does not seem like the interested parties are taking Biden’s insistence as the final word on the issue. With just six weeks until the Democratic National Convention, how does this all end?
And following landmark elections in Britain and France, we travel across the pond for an international edition of “good or bad use of polling.”
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Table of contents
United States
