How an Open Democratic Convention Would Work
14Digest
This episode of the Ezra Klein Show delves into the history and mechanics of presidential nominating conventions, focusing on the shift from a party-controlled system to a more voter-driven one. Elaine Kaymark, a leading expert on the subject, explains how the 1968 Democratic Convention, marred by violence and controversy, led to the establishment of a commission that fundamentally changed the delegate selection process. The commission's recommendations, including binding primaries and simultaneous caucuses, effectively transferred control from party leaders to voters. Kaymark argues that this change, while seemingly democratic, has also led to a decline in peer review and a focus on candidates who are broadly acceptable to the party, potentially excluding more insurgent or controversial figures. The episode then explores the potential implications of a brokered convention in 2024, particularly if Joe Biden steps down before the primaries are over. Kaymark outlines the process of delegate selection, the potential candidates who might emerge, and the dynamics of politicking among delegates. She emphasizes the importance of local politics and the influence of state-level power brokers. The episode concludes with a discussion of the challenges and opportunities presented by a brokered convention, highlighting the potential for both procedural chaos and a fascinating democratic spectacle.
Outlines
Introduction
This Chapter introduces the topic of presidential nominating conventions and the potential for a brokered convention in 2024, setting the stage for a discussion with Elaine Kaymark, a leading expert on the subject.
The Evolution of the Nominating Process
This Chapter delves into the history of presidential nominating conventions, explaining the shift from a party-controlled system to a more voter-driven one. Elaine Kaymark discusses the key events and reforms that led to this change, particularly the 1968 Democratic Convention and the subsequent commission that established binding primaries and simultaneous caucuses.
The Role of Delegates and Primaries
This Chapter explores the role of delegates in the nominating process, particularly in the pre-1968 era. Kaymark explains how primaries were initially considered "beauty contests" and how they evolved to become more influential in delegate selection. She uses the example of John F. Kennedy's West Virginia primary victory to illustrate how primaries could provide valuable information about a candidate's electability, even if they didn't directly determine delegate allocation.
The Impact of the 1968 Convention
This Chapter examines the aftermath of the tumultuous 1968 Democratic Convention and the subsequent reforms that reshaped the nominating process. Kaymark highlights the two key changes: the requirement for binding primaries and the standardization of caucuses, both of which significantly shifted power from party leaders to voters.
Democracy and Representation
This Chapter delves into the question of democratic representation in the nominating process, comparing the direct democracy of primaries with the representative democracy of party leaders and elected officials. Kaymark argues that both forms of democracy have their strengths and weaknesses, and that the debate over legitimacy often overlooks the role of political parties as protected entities under the First Amendment.
The Brokered Primary
This Chapter explores the concept of a "brokered primary" and how it can manifest in situations where a single candidate dominates the field, but faces widespread opposition from voters. Kaymark uses the example of Joe Biden's current position to illustrate how party pressure and incumbency can influence the primary process, even in the absence of a true contest.
The Brokered Convention
This Chapter examines the potential implications of a brokered convention in 2024, particularly if Joe Biden steps down before the primaries are over. Kaymark outlines the process of delegate selection, the potential candidates who might emerge, and the dynamics of politicking among delegates. She emphasizes the importance of local politics and the influence of state-level power brokers.
The Vice President's Role
This Chapter explores the potential role of Vice President Kamala Harris in a brokered convention, considering both her strengths and weaknesses as a potential nominee. Kaymark discusses how Joe Biden's endorsement could influence the race and how the presence of other powerful candidates could lead to a more open contest.
Keywords
Presidential Nominating Conventions
The process by which political parties select their candidates for president. This involves a series of primaries and caucuses, culminating in a national convention where delegates formally nominate the party's candidate.
Brokered Convention
A convention where no candidate has a majority of delegates going into the event, leading to a process of negotiation and bargaining among delegates to determine the nominee. This can occur if a candidate drops out late in the process or if no candidate secures a clear majority in the primaries.
Elaine Kaymark
A leading expert on presidential nominating conventions, with extensive experience working on presidential campaigns and nominating conventions for both Democrats and Republicans. She is the author of the book "Primary Politics" and a senior fellow at Brookings.
1968 Democratic Convention
A tumultuous convention marked by violence and controversy, which led to the establishment of a commission to reform the delegate selection process. The convention highlighted the shortcomings of the old system, where delegates were often uncommitted and party leaders had significant influence.
McGovern-Fraser Commission
A commission appointed in the aftermath of the 1968 Democratic Convention to reform the delegate selection process. The commission's recommendations, including binding primaries and simultaneous caucuses, fundamentally changed the way presidential nominees are chosen.
Binding Primaries
Primaries where the outcome directly determines the allocation of delegates to candidates. This contrasts with "beauty contest" primaries, where the results were not binding and did not necessarily influence delegate selection.
Super Delegates
Elected officials and party leaders who are automatically granted delegate status at the national convention. They have been a source of controversy in recent years, with some arguing that they undermine the democratic process.
Delegate Math
The process of calculating and analyzing the number of delegates each candidate has secured in the primaries and caucuses. This is crucial for determining who has a majority of delegates going into the convention and who is likely to win the nomination.
Grassroots Campaign
A campaign that relies heavily on the efforts of volunteers and local activists, rather than large-scale fundraising and media campaigns. This is often associated with more traditional forms of political organizing, where candidates build support through personal connections and local networks.
Peer Review
A process where experts in a particular field evaluate the qualifications and competence of individuals seeking to enter that field. Kaymark argues that the modern primary system lacks peer review, which could lead to the nomination of candidates who are not well-suited for the presidency.
Q&A
How did the 1968 Democratic Convention change the presidential nominating process?
The 1968 convention, marked by violence and controversy, led to the establishment of a commission that reformed the delegate selection process. The commission's recommendations, including binding primaries and simultaneous caucuses, effectively transferred control from party leaders to voters.
What are the potential implications of a brokered convention in 2024?
A brokered convention could lead to a period of intense politicking among delegates, with candidates vying for support and potentially shifting the narrative in their favor. It could also lead to procedural chaos and a lack of clarity about the nominee, particularly if the relevant parties lack experience with this process.
How does the modern primary system differ from the pre-1968 system?
The modern system is more voter-driven, with binding primaries and simultaneous caucuses determining delegate allocation. This contrasts with the pre-1968 system, where delegates were often uncommitted and party leaders had significant influence.
What are the arguments for and against the use of super delegates?
Supporters of super delegates argue that they provide a valuable role for experienced party leaders and elected officials. Critics argue that they undermine the democratic process by giving undue influence to a small group of individuals.
What are the potential challenges and opportunities presented by a brokered convention?
Challenges include the potential for procedural chaos, party fracturing, and a lack of clarity about the nominee. Opportunities include a fascinating democratic spectacle, a chance for new candidates to emerge, and a more grassroots approach to campaigning.
How might a brokered convention affect the general election?
A brokered convention could lead to a delayed nomination, potentially impacting the candidate's ability to mount an effective general election campaign. It could also create internal divisions within the party, potentially affecting voter turnout and enthusiasm.
What are the key factors that could influence the outcome of a brokered convention?
Key factors include the presence of strong candidates, the influence of state-level power brokers, the dynamics of interest groups, and the overall health of the party.
What are the potential consequences of a brokered convention for the Democratic Party?
Potential consequences include party fracturing, a loss of momentum, and a weakened position going into the general election. However, it could also lead to a more unified party, particularly if the nominee is seen as a strong contender.
How might the media coverage of a brokered convention differ from past conventions?
Media coverage would likely be more intense and pervasive, with national television crews covering state conventions and delegate selection processes. This could lead to a more chaotic and unpredictable spectacle, but also provide greater transparency and public engagement.
What are the key takeaways from this episode about the presidential nominating process?
Key takeaways include the evolution of the process from a party-controlled system to a more voter-driven one, the importance of delegate selection and local politics, and the potential implications of a brokered convention in 2024.
Show Notes
After President Biden’s rough performance at the first presidential debate, the question of an open convention has roared to the front of Democratic politics. But how would an open convention work? What would be its risks? What would be its rewards?
In February, after I first made the case for an open Democratic convention, I interviewed Elaine Kamarck to better understand what an open convention would look like. She literally wrote the book on how we choose presidential candidates, “Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know About How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates.” But her background here isn’t just theory. She’s worked on four presidential campaigns and on 10 nominating conventions — for both Democrats and Republicans. She’s a member of the Democratic National Committee’s Rules Committee. And her explanation of the mechanics and dynamics of open conventions was, for me, extremely helpful. It’s even more relevant now than it was then.
Mentioned:
The Lincoln Miracle by Ed Achorn
Book Recommendations:
All the King’s Men by Robert Penn Warren
The Making of the President 1960 by Theodore H. White
Quiet Revolution by Byron E. Shafer
Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.
You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.
This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Annie Galvin. Fact checking by Michelle Harris, with Kate Sinclair and Kristin Lin. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Rollin Hu. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. And special thanks to Sonia Herrero.
This conversation was recorded in February 2024.
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