THE YODA EFFECT:

“YOU MUST UNLEARN WHAT YOU

HAVE LEARNED”

On my quest to find people who enjoy discovering they were wrong, a trusted colleague told me I had to meet Jean-Pierre Beugoms. He’s in his late forties, and he’s the sort of person who’s honest to a fault; he

tells the truth even if it hurts. When his son was a toddler, they were watching a space documentary together, and Jean-Pierre casually mentioned that the sun would one day turn into a red giant and engulf the Earth. His son was not amused. Between tears, he cried,

“But I love this planet!” Jean-Pierre felt so terrible that he decided to bite his tongue instead of mentioning threats that could prevent the Earth from even lasting that long.

Back in the 1990s, Jean-Pierre had a hobby of collecting the predictions that pundits made on the news and scoring his own forecasts against them. Eventually he started competing in forecasting tournaments—international contests hosted by Good Judgment, where people try to predict the future. It’s a daunting

task; there’s an old saying that historians can’t even predict the past.

A typical tournament draws thousands of entrants from around the world to anticipate big political, economic, and technological events.

The questions are time-bound, with measurable, specific results. Will the current president of Iran still be in office in six months? Which soccer team will win the next World Cup? In the following year, will an individual or a company face criminal charges for an accident involving a self-driving vehicle?

Participants don’t just answer yes or no; they have to give their odds. It’s a systematic way of testing whether they know what they don’t know. They get scored months later on accuracy and calibration—earning points not just for giving the right answer, but also for having the right level of conviction. The best forecasters have confidence in their predictions that come true and doubt in their predictions that prove false.

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📚هایلایت قسمت 41 کتاب Think Again

✅quest (a long search for something that is difficult to find) جستجوی درازمدت

✅pundits (experts in a particular subject, often expressing their opinions on television or in newspapers) متخصصان یا صاحب‌نظران

✅daunting (making you feel slightly frightened or worried about your ability to achieve something) دشوار و چالش‌برانگیز

✅entrants (people who enter a competition, exam, or other activity) کسانی که وارد مسابقه می‌شوند

✅time-bound (limited to a particular period of time) در یک دوره زمانی محدود

✅conviction (a strong belief or opinion) یقین محکم

✅forecasters (people who make predictions about future events) پیش‌بینی‌کنندگان

✅to a fault : more than needed, بیش از حد

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