As prescient as Jean-Pierre’s bet on Trump was, he still had trouble sticking to it in the face of his feelings. In the spring of 2016, he identified the media coverage of Hillary Clinton’s emails as a red flag, and kept predicting a Trump victory for two months more. By the summer, though, as he contemplated the impending possibility of a

Trump presidency, he found himself struggling to sleep at night. He changed his forecast to Clinton.

Looking back, Jean-Pierre isn’t defensive about his decision. He freely admits that despite being an experienced forecaster, he made the rookie mistake of falling victim to desirability bias, allowing his preference to cloud his judgment. He focused on the forces that would enable him to predict a Clinton win because he desperately wanted a Trump loss. “That was just a way of me trying to deal with this unpleasant forecast I had issued,” he says. Then he does something unexpected: he laughs at himself.

If we’re insecure, we make fun of others. If we’re comfortable being wrong, we’re not afraid to poke fun at ourselves. Laughing at ourselves reminds us that although we might take our decisions seriously, we don’t have to take ourselves too seriously. Research

suggests that the more frequently we make fun of ourselves, the happier we tend to be.* Instead of beating ourselves up about our mistakes, we can turn some of our past misconceptions into sources of present amusement.

Being wrong won’t always be joyful. The path to embracing mistakes is full of painful moments, and we handle those moments better when we remember they’re essential for progress. But if we can’t learn to find occasional glee in discovering we were wrong, it will be awfully hard to get anything right.

I’ve noticed a paradox in great scientists and superforecasters: the reason they’re so comfortable being wrong is that they’re terrified of being wrong. What sets them apart is the time horizon. They’re

determined to reach the correct answer in the long run, and they know that means they have to be open to stumbling, backtracking, and rerouting in the short run. They shun rose-colored glasses in favor of a sturdy mirror. The fear of missing the mark next year is a

powerful motivator to get a crystal-clear view of last year’s mistakes. “People who are right a lot listen a lot, and they change their mind a lot,” Jeff Bezos says. “If you don’t change your mind frequently, you’re going to be wrong a lot.”

Jean-Pierre Beugoms has a favorite trick for catching himself when he’s wrong. When he makes a forecast, he also makes a list of the conditions in which it should hold true—as well as the conditions under which he would change his mind. He explains that this keeps him honest, preventing him from getting attached to a bad

prediction.

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📚هایلایت قسمت 46 کتاب Think Again

✅ Prescient: Having foresight or ability to predict future events, دارای بینش آینده‌نگر

✅ Bet on: To gamble or take a risk on something happening, شرط بستن روی

✅ Stick to (something): To continue with a plan or decision, پایبند بودن به

✅ In the face of: Despite, با وجود

✅ Media coverage: How news and media report an event, پوشش خبری

✅ Red flag: A warning sign or indication of a problem, علامت هشدار

✅ Victory: Winning, پیروزی

✅ Contemplate: To think about deeply, اندیشیدن به

✅ Impending: About to happen, قریب‌الوقوع

✅ Forecast: A prediction or estimate of a future event, پیش‌بینی

✅ Defensive: Trying to justify oneself or protect from criticism, دفاعی

✅ Admit: To accept or confess, قبول کردن

✅ Rookie mistake: A beginner’s error, اشتباه تازه‌کارانه

✅ Desirability bias: The tendency to want a certain outcome, سوگیری تمایل به نتیجه دلخواه

✅ Cloud (one’s) judgment: To affect one’s ability to think clearly, تحت تأثیر قرار دادن قضاوت

✅ Desperately: With great urgency or need, به شدت

✅ Unpleasant: Not enjoyable or agreeable, ناخوشایند

✅ Laugh at oneself: To be able to see one’s own faults humorously, خود را دست انداختن

✅ Insecure: Lacking confidence, ناامن

✅ Make fun of: To tease or joke about, مسخره کردن

✅ Poke fun at: To tease lightly, طعنه زدن

✅ Take (something) seriously: To regard with importance, جدی گرفتن

✅ Beat oneself up: To blame or criticize oneself harshly, خود را سرزنش کردن

✅ Misconception: A wrong idea or understanding, تصور اشتباه

✅ Amusement: Enjoyment or fun, سرگرمی

✅ Embrace mistakes: To accept errors as part of learning, پذیرفتن اشتباهات

✅ Painful moments: Difficult or unpleasant times, لحظات دردناک

✅ Progress: Forward movement or improvement, پیشرفت

✅ Glee: Joy or delight, خوشحالی

✅ Paradox: A situation that seems contradictory but is true, تناقض

✅ Time horizon: The period over which a goal or prediction is considered, افق زمانی

✅ Stumble: To make a mistake or falter, لغزش کردن

✅ Backtracking: Retracing steps or changing a decision, عقب‌نشینی

✅ Rerouting: Changing direction or plan, تغییر مسیر

✅ Shun: To avoid deliberately, اجتناب کردن

✅ Rose-colored glasses: An overly optimistic view, دیدگاه خوش‌بینانه

✅ Motivator: Something that encourages action, انگیزه‌بخش

✅ Crystal-clear: Very clear and easy to understand, کاملاً واضح

✅ Attached to (something): Emotionally connected or committed, وابسته بودن

✅ Hold true: To remain valid or accurate, درست بودن

✅ Change one’s mind: To alter one’s opinion, نظر خود را عوض کردن

✅ Keep honest: To remain truthful and objective, صادق ماندن