Another of the world’s top forecasters is Kjirste Morrell. She’s obviously bright—she has a doctorate from MIT in mechanical engineering—but her academic and professional experience wasn’t

exactly relevant to predicting world events. Her background was in human hip joint mechanics, designing better shoes, and building robotic wheelchairs. When I asked Kjirste what made her so good at

forecasting, she replied, “There’s no benefit to me for being wrong for longer. It’s much better if I change my beliefs sooner, and it’s a good feeling to have that sense of a discovery, that surprise—I would think people would enjoy that.” Kjirste hasn’t just figured out how to erase the pain of being wrong. She’s transformed it into a source of pleasure. She landed there through a form of classical conditioning, like when Pavlov’s dog learned to salivate at the sound of a bell. If being wrong repeatedly leads us to the right answer, the experience of being wrong itself can become joyful. That doesn’t mean we’ll enjoy it every step of the way. One of Kjirste’s biggest misses was her forecast for the 2016 U.S.

presidential election, where she bet on Hillary Clinton to beat Donald Trump. Since she wasn’t a Trump supporter, the prospect of being wrong was painful—it was too central to her identity. She knew a Trump presidency was possible, but she didn’t want to think it was

probable, so she couldn’t bring herself to forecast it.

That was a common mistake in 2016. Countless experts,

pollsters, and pundits underestimated Trump—and Brexit—because they were too emotionally invested in their past predictions and identities. If you want to be a better forecaster today, it helps to let go of your commitment to the opinions you held yesterday. Just wake up in the morning, snap your fingers, and decide you don’t care. It doesn’t matter who’s president or what happens to your country. The world is unjust and the expertise you spent decades developing is obsolete! It’s a piece of cake, right? About as easy as willing yourself to fall out of love. Somehow, Jean-Pierre Beugoms managed to pull it off.

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📚هایلایت قسمت 44 کتاب Think Again

✅ Top forecaster: A highly skilled person in making accurate predictions – پیش‌بینی‌کننده‌ی برتر

✅ Academic background: Someone’s education and research history – پیشینه‌ی علمی

✅ Professional experience: Work-related knowledge and skills gained over time – تجربه‌ی حرفه‌ای

✅ Not exactly relevant to: Not directly connected or related to – ارتباط مستقیمی نداشت با...

✅ There’s no benefit to me for being wrong for longer: Staying wrong doesn’t help; it’s better to correct yourself sooner – اشتباه ماندن طولانی‌مدت هیچ فایده‌ای ندارد

✅ Change one’s beliefs: Adjust your opinions based on new evidence – تغییر دادن باورها

✅ Sense of a discovery: The feeling that you’ve found or realized something new – حس کشف کردن چیزی جدید

✅ Source of pleasure: Something that causes happiness – منبع لذت

✅ Classical conditioning: A learned response triggered by repetition, like in Pavlov’s dog experiment – شرطی‌سازی کلاسیک

✅ Salivate at the sound of a bell: Respond automatically to a learned trigger – آب دهان راه افتادن با شنیدن زنگ (نمونه‌ای از شرطی‌سازی)

✅ joyful: something that is joyful causes happiness and pleasure. – لذت بخش

✅ Every step of the way: Throughout the entire process – در تمام مراحل

✅ One of the biggest misses: A major error in prediction – یکی از بزرگ‌ترین خطاهای پیش‌بینی

✅ Emotionally invested in: Deeply emotionally attached or involved – از نظر احساسی درگیر بودن

✅ Bring oneself to do something: Force or persuade yourself to do something difficult – خود را راضی کردن به انجام کاری سخت

✅ Pundits and pollsters: Experts and people who conduct opinion polls – کارشناسان و نظرسنج‌ها

✅ Let go of your commitment to your opinions: Stop holding tightly to your previous beliefs – رها کردن تعهد به باورهای قبلی

✅ Snap your fingers: Instantly or easily (often said sarcastically) – به راحتی / با یک بشکن انگشت

✅ A piece of cake: Very easy (often used sarcastically in this context) – کاری خیلی ساده (کنایه‌آمیز)

✅ Will yourself to do something: Mentally force yourself to do something difficult – با اراده‌ی شخصی کاری را انجام دادن

✅ Fall out of love: Stop loving or being emotionally attached – بی‌علاقه شدن / از عشق درآمدن