The View From the Israeli Right
11Digest
This episode of the Ezra Klein Show features an interview with Amit Segal, a renowned Israeli political analyst, who provides insights into the current state of Israeli politics. Segal argues that there is no longer a left-wing presence in Israel, with the political spectrum shifting significantly towards the right. He attributes this shift to the left's failure to deliver on its promises of social justice and a two-state solution. Segal also discusses the complexities of security in Israel, particularly in the context of the recent war with Hamas. He emphasizes the lack of a consensus reality among Israelis and Palestinians, with both sides often dismissing evidence that contradicts their narratives. Segal highlights the challenges of finding a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, suggesting that the current situation is not conducive to a negotiated settlement. He also explores the role of the Palestinian Authority and its relationship with Israel, arguing that the PA's future is uncertain and that its collapse could lead to further instability. Segal concludes by discussing the potential for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, highlighting the changing dynamics in the region and the possibility of a new era of cooperation based on shared interests.
Outlines
Introduction
This Chapter introduces the episode and the guest, Amit Segal, a prominent Israeli political analyst. The episode takes place on the day Benny Gantz resigns from the war cabinet, leading to a discussion about the current political landscape in Israel.
Segal's Perspective on Israeli Politics
This Chapter delves into Segal's analysis of the current political climate in Israel. He argues that the left-wing has effectively vanished, with the political spectrum dominated by right-wing and far-right parties. Segal attributes this shift to the left's failure to deliver on its promises of social justice and a two-state solution.
The West Bank and the Palestinian Authority
This Chapter focuses on the situation in the West Bank and the Palestinian Authority. Segal discusses the complexities of the relationship between Israel and the PA, highlighting the challenges of security cooperation and the PA's precarious position. He also explores the impact of Smotrich's decision to cut off tax revenues to the PA, arguing that it could further destabilize the region.
The North and the Lebanon Border
This Chapter examines the situation on the Lebanon border and the threat posed by Hezbollah. Segal discusses the challenges of dealing with Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran and has a more sophisticated military capability than Hamas. He also explores the different theories about Hezbollah's motivations, including the possibility of a long-term strategic plan to destroy Israel.
The Future of Israeli-American Relations
This Chapter delves into the complexities of Israeli-American relations, particularly in the context of the changing political landscape in the United States. Segal discusses the impact of the Democratic Party's shift away from its traditional pro-Israel stance and the implications for Israeli security. He also explores the potential for a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, highlighting the changing dynamics in the region and the possibility of a new era of cooperation based on shared interests.
Keywords
Amit Segal
Amit Segal is a prominent Israeli political analyst, known for his expertise on Israeli politics and security. He is considered by many to be the most influential political analysts in the country, with a strong focus on the right-wing perspective. He is the author of the book "The Story of Israeli Politics," which is set to be released in English in September 2023.
Israeli Politics
Israeli politics is characterized by a complex and often volatile political landscape. The country has a multi-party system, with a wide range of ideological perspectives, from left-wing to right-wing and far-right. Key issues in Israeli politics include the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, security, social justice, and economic development. The current political climate is marked by a significant shift towards the right, with the left-wing losing ground in recent years.
Hamas
Hamas is a Palestinian Islamist political organization and militant group that controls the Gaza Strip. It is considered a terrorist organization by Israel, the United States, and the European Union. Hamas's stated goal is to destroy Israel and establish an Islamic state in its place. The organization has been responsible for numerous attacks against Israel, including suicide bombings and rocket attacks. The recent war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023 highlighted the ongoing conflict and the challenges of achieving peace in the region.
Hezbollah
Hezbollah is a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militant group. It is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and Israel. Hezbollah is backed by Iran and has a sophisticated military capability, including a large arsenal of rockets. The group has been involved in numerous conflicts with Israel, including the 2006 Lebanon War. Hezbollah's presence on the Lebanon border poses a significant security threat to Israel.
Palestinian Authority
The Palestinian Authority (PA) is a semi-autonomous governing body that administers parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. It was established in 1994 as part of the Oslo Accords, which aimed to create a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The PA's relationship with Israel is complex and often fraught with tension. The PA has been criticized for its corruption and its failure to effectively govern the territories under its control. The recent war between Israel and Hamas has further destabilized the PA and raised questions about its future.
Two-State Solution
The two-state solution is a proposed resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that envisions the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside the State of Israel. It has been the basis for numerous peace negotiations, but it has been difficult to achieve due to disagreements over issues such as borders, security, and the status of Jerusalem. The two-state solution has lost support in recent years, with many Israelis and Palestinians now believing that it is no longer a viable option.
Iran
Iran is a Shia Islamic republic located in the Middle East. It is a major regional power and has been involved in numerous conflicts and proxy wars in the region. Iran is a staunch supporter of Hezbollah and Hamas and has been accused of providing them with weapons and financial support. Iran's nuclear program has also been a source of international concern, with Israel viewing it as a major threat to its security.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is a Sunni Islamic monarchy located in the Arabian Peninsula. It is the world's largest oil exporter and a major player in global politics. Saudi Arabia has traditionally been a strong supporter of the Palestinian cause, but in recent years it has moved closer to Israel, driven by shared concerns about Iran. The potential for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is a significant development in the region and could have a major impact on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Q&A
What is Amit Segal's main argument about the current state of Israeli politics?
Segal argues that there is no longer a left-wing presence in Israel, with the political spectrum shifting significantly towards the right. He attributes this shift to the left's failure to deliver on its promises of social justice and a two-state solution.
What are the main challenges to security in Israel, according to Segal?
Segal highlights the lack of a consensus reality among Israelis and Palestinians, with both sides often dismissing evidence that contradicts their narratives. He also discusses the threat posed by Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran and has a more sophisticated military capability than Hamas.
What is Segal's perspective on the future of the Palestinian Authority?
Segal believes that the PA's future is uncertain and that its collapse could lead to further instability. He argues that the PA's governance is dependent on Israel's support and that it may not survive if Israel were to withdraw from the West Bank.
How has the relationship between Israel and the United States changed in recent years?
Segal discusses the impact of the Democratic Party's shift away from its traditional pro-Israel stance and the implications for Israeli security. He also highlights the growing tensions between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, particularly over the issue of the two-state solution.
What are the potential implications of a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia?
Segal believes that a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia could have a major impact on the region, potentially leading to a new era of cooperation based on shared interests. He also suggests that such a deal could further isolate Hamas and Iran.
What are the key takeaways from Segal's analysis of the current situation in Israel?
Segal's analysis highlights the complexities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the challenges of finding a solution. He emphasizes the lack of a consensus reality, the growing influence of the right-wing, and the importance of security in shaping Israeli politics. He also suggests that the future of the region is uncertain and that the current situation is not conducive to a negotiated settlement.
Show Notes
On Tuesday I got back from an eight-day trip to Israel and the West Bank. I happened to be there on the day that Benny Gantz resigned from the war cabinet and called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to schedule new elections, breaking the unity government that Israel had had since shortly after Oct. 7.
There is no viable left wing in Israel right now. There is a coalition that Netanyahu leads stretching from right to far right and a coalition that Gantz leads stretching from center to right. In the early months of the war, Gantz appeared ascendant as support for Netanyahu cratered. But now Netanyahu’s poll numbers are ticking back up.
So one thing I did in Israel was deepen my reporting on Israel’s right. And there, Amit Segal’s name kept coming up. He’s one of Israel’s most influential political analysts and the author of “The Story of Israeli Politics” is coming out in English.
Segal and I talked about the political differences between Gantz and Netanyahu, the theory of security that’s emerging on the Israeli right, what happened to the Israeli left, the threat from Iran and Hezbollah and how Netanyahu is trying to use President Biden’s criticism to his political advantage.
Mentioned:
“Biden May Spur Another Netanyahu Comeback” by Amit Segal
Book Recommendations:
The Years of Lyndon Johnson Series by Robert A. Caro
The World of Yesterday by Stefan Zweig
The Object of Zionism by Zvi Efrat
The News from Waterloo by Brian Cathcart
Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.
You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.
This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Claire Gordon. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris with Kate Sinclair. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin, Rollin Hu, Elias Isquith and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. And special thanks to Sonia Herrero.
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