Capital Flows and Asset Markets

Hedge funds, macro and short selling.

IS GLD/TLT STILL A GOOD TRADE?

Probably yes

09-12
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CLEARINGHOUSE THEORY AND PRACTICE HAS BEEN CORRECT - BUT IS POLITICS NOW FALLING IN TO PLACE TOO?

Its been seven years, but the politics is starting to fall into place

09-11
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WHAT IF THE TRUMP ATTACK ON THE FED IS HAWKISH?

What if they cut rates but also cut the balance sheet?

09-08
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SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES - UPDATE 2

Gold broke out and bonds broke down. The inflation trade is back on.

09-04
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WHAT TO DO ABOUT YEN?

Can the widowmaker be tamed?

09-02
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BRUMBY CAPITAL UPDATE

A good month

09-01
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I FIND MYSELF UNCONTROLLABLE BULLISH ON JAPAN

Politics undid Japan in the 1990s, and politics looks like it will remake Japan in the 2020s and beyond

08-28
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SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES - UPDATE

We have seen enough of Trump 2.0 to know what is coming next

08-25
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SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES

Technicals and positioning suggest something wild is brewing

08-21
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IS THE ASIAN SAVINGS GLUT OVER?

And what does that mean?

08-20
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MISHIMA!

Japan First?

08-18
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HOW FAR CAN EQUITIES OUTPERFORM BONDS?

Equities do not always outperform bonds - but they have done very well for the last 10 years. How much longer can this continue?

08-14
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EARNINGS AND THEMES UPDATE

Updates on various positions

08-12
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ARE TREASURIES A BUY?

Is the reflation trade dead?

08-11
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THINKING ABOUT AI - AND A LONG IDEA

If AI is a space race, then China is going to have to match the USA build out

08-08
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WHY NIIP FAILED WITH THE US

What if US NIIP is not capital flow driven, but valuation driven?

08-06
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IS AI A BUBBLE - PART 2

Its the same game as the dot com bubble - but this time the players are different. That makes it hard to see a top.

08-06
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IS AI A BUBBLE?

It bears a passing resemblance to the Dot Com era - but the differences are too big to ignore

08-05
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BRUMBY UPDATE

July was a volatile month

08-03
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DEFENCE UPDATE

Quick update on earnings

07-30
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