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IS GLD/TLT STILL A GOOD TRADE?

IS GLD/TLT STILL A GOOD TRADE?

Update: 2025-09-12

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A few year ago, I could see the political winds were moving to getting real wages up again. This could be achieved either by raising wages, or lowering asset prices (the political aim was to get house price to income ratios down). This line of thinking lead me to a long gold (GLD)/ short Treasury (TLT) trade. It has been a good trade.

<figure>

<source type="image/webp" />

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However the TLT side of the trade has not broken to a new low since 2023.

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<source type="image/webp" />

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<svg class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg>

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Is the GLD/TLT trade done? Or is the TLT side just a waste of time?

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IS GLD/TLT STILL A GOOD TRADE?

IS GLD/TLT STILL A GOOD TRADE?

Russell Clark